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What about the Belgian real estate market after COVID 19

Chapô

The whole Lecobel Vaneau team is wholeheartedly with you during this time of confinement and we sincerely hope that all of you are in good health and safe with your loved ones. For our part, we are of course available to you by phone or email.

Introduction

The whole Lecobel Vaneau team is wholeheartedly with you during this time of confinement and we sincerely hope that all of you are in good health and safe with your loved ones. For our part, we are of course available to you by phone or email.

Like you, we are wondering about the outcome of this crisis and more particularly about the future of the real estate market.


The impact of this health and economic crisis is, to date, impossible to determine and very omniscient would be the one who would claim the opposite. On the other hand, although the current situation may be unprecedented in many aspects, previous crises can shed light on us and provide us with answers.

Let us remain calm, resilient and keep in mind that this is neither the first nor the last crisis that we will face.

The oldest will remember the American credit crisis in 1966, the Gulf War in 1990, the internet bubble in 2000 and of course, more recently, the subprime crisis in 2008.

What we could observe during these different crises on the Belgian real estate market?

 

 

 

Description

For starters, the Belgian real estate market is much less volatile than most other European markets.

This reduced volatility is mainly due to our particularly high mutation rates (registration fees and costs) which, therefore, naturally clean up our speculative buying market. Furthermore, even if prices have risen sharply in recent years, we are far from the exorbitant prices practiced elsewhere, which also has the effect of reducing variations.

In general, during previous crises, we were able to observe slight decreases of 5% to 10% on the Belgian real estate market, less spectacular than in our neighbors where they could be around 40% to 60%.

Remember the dizzying plummets of the Spanish, Dutch, Irish and American markets in 2008.
At the time, in Belgium and Brussels, we recorded a decline far less than that of our European neighbors. Our market is therefore historically much more stable, healthy and better able to withstand shocks.

Then let's not forget that the accommodation remains
and will remain a priority in household budget arbitrations.

The Maslow pyramid demonstrates this very well. People may go to a restaurant less and go less on vacation, but housing expenses will necessarily come before these first savings.

 

In addition, having started my profession as a real estate agent before 2008, I can assure you that there will always be transactions. Indeed, in a real estate market, there are schematically three main categories of transactions: imperative transactions, investment transactions and convenience transactions.

By imperative transactions, I mean transactions linked to events that change the composition of the household, such as the birth of a child or even a family reorganization, thus creating new needs for families.

Investment transactions may experience a slight momentary dip, but when the equity markets go downhill, which is the case right now, many investors decide to secure their capital in the brick. So, a priori, these transactions should not be too affected.

Regarding convenience transactions, these are purchases that are not absolutely necessary, for example "I already have an apartment and I want to acquire a larger, more comfortable or better oriented apartment" . This type of transaction will become rare for a more or less long period because the crisis we are going through will leave a lasting impression and will lead households to be more careful in their spending.


Finally, and this is rare enough to be emphasized, even before this crisis is over, the great authorities of the political and banking world already announce that they will put their hands in their pockets in order to limit the damage. Admittedly, this does not offer an absolute guarantee on the future state of the market, but it has the merit of showing that there is a real will on the part of decision-makers to allow our economy to start again as soon as possible after this episode worthy of a Hollywood movie will have ended.

Take care of yourself and your families.

Warmly,

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